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Forrester’s Digest: SpaceX valued at $200 billion plus Arianespace loses Meteosat 3rd gen launch

July 1, 2024

SpaceX is contemplating another fundraising operation by selling shares in a tender offer that could value the closely held company at roughly $200 billion (€185.7bn), according to Bloomberg.

SpaceX is reportedly discussing a tender offer — a transaction that enables employees and insiders like investors to sell shares — that may kick in days, said some of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential. The price for the upcoming tender offer hasn’t been decided but SpaceX is weighing offering shares at $108 to $112 apiece.

The last sell-off of shares valued SpaceX at around $180 billion.

SpaceX has frequently been said to be contemplating an Initial Public Offering (IPO) but both Elon Musk and President and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell, have said “not yet” when specifically asked about an IPO.

Musk’s view is that an IPO and obligatory stock market listing places an unnecessary work-load on a business.

Last week, Musk said, “The legal load and pressure for short-term results for a public company are very high,” perhaps reflecting on the challenges he experienced in getting shareholders to approve his $56 billion compensation package on his Tesla shareholding.

According to numerous sources, SpaceX achieved cash flow breakeven in November of 2023. Musk stated that SpaceX had “no need for additional capacity and will actually be buying back shares.” He said liquidity rounds for investors and employees are held around every six months.

Bloomberg added that SpaceX probably booked revenues of $9 billion in 2023 for its rocket launch and Starlink broadband service, which provides low-cost internet in remote locations.

Arianespace loses key launch order

July 9th is the scheduled launch date for the much-delayed test flight European Space Agency’s (ESA) Ariane 6 rocket. However, last week saw Europe’s important weather organization cancel its launch contract on an Ariane 6 flight. Worse, perhaps, the cancellation was made in favor of Arianespace’s arch-rival, SpaceX.

Eumetsat, in a June 28th statement, said its Meteosat Third Generation-Sounder 1 (MTG-S1) geostationary weather satellite will now launch on a Falcon 9 in 2025. The spacecraft had originally been expected to launch on an Ariane 6 on the rocket’s third launch around March of 2025. The Eumetsat/Arianespace contract was signed some four years ago.

“This decision was driven by exceptional circumstances,” Phil Evans, DG-of Eumetsat, said. “It does not compromise our standard policy of supporting European partners, and we look forward to a successful SpaceX launch for this masterpiece of European technology.”

Behind the scenes it would appear that Eumetsat has swapped a perhaps uncertain launch date on an Ariane 6 for a definite date on a Falcon 9. Unsaid, but very clear, is that the decision is very much a vote of no confidence in Arianespace and, in particular, either uncertainties over a promised launch date and the cost of the planned mission.

French newspaper Le Monde stated that the cancellation had been a totally unexpected surprise at ESA and its launch contracting colleagues at ArianeGroup and the French space agency (CNES). Philippe Baptiste, head of CNES, called the decision “quite a brutal change” given the unfortunate timing and “a very disappointing day for European space efforts.”.

Josef Aschbacher, DG at ESA, also called Eumetsat’s decision “surprising” in a June 29th comment. “It’s difficult to understand, especially as Ariane-6 is well on track for its 9 July inaugural flight, with all proceeding nominally.”

The news that the debut launch is proceeding on plan is positive, but this is test flight only with a – mostly – dummy cargo. The first actual commercial flight is not scheduled until this coming winter. Meanwhile, SpaceX is planning at least 144 launches this year of the company’s hugely successful Falcon 9 vehicles.

Arianespace is planning to ramp up next year to about six missions in total, and then the longer-term strategy is for 9-10 launches annually.

Filed Under: Climate & Environmental Monitoring, Contracts & Commercial Deals

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