Starlink is unlikely to gain permission to operate in South Africa any time soon, according to a local communications sector expert.
Dominic Cull, a regulatory expert at communications sector legal advisory firm Ellipsis, said it will be at least two years before new regulations will be in place to allow for equity equivalents — and even that prediction is optimistic. He was speaking at a conference organized by the Wireless Access Providers’ Association.
“On average, it takes a minimum of five years to develop a piece of legislation in South Africa and another three years to translate that into a regulatory framework that is enforceable and applicable,” Cull told delegates. “Optimistically — and there is no historical precedent justifying optimism in this case — it will be another 18 months to two years before ICAASA is ready with a regulatory framework on EEIPs (equity equivalence investment programmes). So, Starlink’s application, if they are still interested, will realistically come towards the end of 2027.”
South Africa’s Communications Minister Solly Malatsi in May issued a draft policy to communications regulator ICASA in which he wants the regulator to explore how EEIPs — already used extensively in other sectors of the economy — could be introduced in ICT sector licensing. The nation’s Equity Equivalent Investment Programmes allows for alternate investment in areas like enterprise development, skills development and job creations.
Otherwise, Malatsi said his rationale is to provide companies looking to invest in the sector with an alternative to a requirement that they either sell or relinquish a 30 per cent stake to previously disadvantaged persons in compliance with broad-based black economic empowerment imperatives.
According to Cull, this political back and forth will continue as ICASA and parliament engage in the process of amending the rules to introduce EEIPs in the ICT sector, likely dragging the process out even longer.
“What Starlink perhaps is not taking into account is just how slowly things move here,” said Cull.
