On March 24, 2026, Novaspace released the 8th edition of its High Throughput Satellites (HTS) report, detailing a seismic shift in satellite communication economics driven by the rapid maturation of Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) constellations. The study projects that HTS service revenues will more than double over the next decade, rising from just under $31 billion in 2025 to $76 billion by 2034.
This growth is anchored by a fundamental redistribution of market share. While NGSO systems accounted for 36% of service revenues in 2025, they are anticipated to capture 80% of total revenues by 2034. This transition marks the end of the “Capacity Era” and the beginning of a service-centric market where vertical integration and integrated user experience are the primary drivers of value.
The Starlink Effect and Capacity Economics
The report identifies Starlink as the primary catalyst for the industry’s current structural transformation. By combining lower-cost capacity—with pricing benchmarks now falling below $0.30 per GB—with rapid global scaling, the SpaceX-owned constellation has reset competitive thresholds for both commercial and government operators.
This massive influx of supply is reflected in global demand forecasts, which are set to reach 218 Terabits per second (Tbps) by 2034. Critically, NGSO systems are expected to supply 98% of this total capacity, forcing traditional Geostationary (GEO) operators to pivot their long-term infrastructure strategies.
GEO Adaptation: Flexibility and Sovereignty
To remain competitive in a market dominated by low-latency NGSO supply, GEO operators are shifting toward software-defined payloads and lower-CAPEX Small GEO platforms. These technologies allow operators to reallocate throughput dynamically to high-value areas like Aero IFC (In-Flight Connectivity) and Maritime Satcom, where GEO still maintains a significant role in hybrid network architectures.
Beyond pure economics, the report highlights that differentiation is increasingly tied to security and sovereignty. As geopolitical tensions rise, defense and government agencies are prioritizing resilient, mission-critical connectivity that utilizes novel spectrum and hardened network architectures. This trend is accelerating a 160% projected surge in defense-aligned satellite launches through the mid-2030s.
Executive Perspective
“Starlink’s impact has been catalytic,” said Dimitri Buchs, Managing Consultant at Novaspace. “The combination of lower-cost capacity, rapid scaling, and improved service quality has set new competitive thresholds. This shift is pushing the entire satcom ecosystem to innovate, differentiate, and redefine their strategic positioning. Operators that can combine scale with flexibility will be best positioned to capture this expanding market.”
The Terabit Era and Ecosystem Coordination
The transition to a 200+ Tbps market requires a higher degree of coordination across the space and terrestrial ecosystems. Novaspace underscores that success in the next decade will depend on multi-orbit interoperability and the adoption of converged network standards like 5G-NTN.
- 2025–2027: High-growth focus on Land Mobility and tactical MilSatCom.
- 2028–2030: Plateauing of laser terminal costs enabling broader NGSO democratization.
- 2034 Target: HTS market maturation at $76 billion with NGSO-dominant supply chains.
The report concludes that the winners in this transformed landscape will be those that innovate at the terminal and user-experience layers, effectively blending satellite connectivity into a seamless global telecommunications fabric.
