To capture higher-resolution Earth observation data and deliver reduced communications latency at lower orbital altitudes, global tech market firm Juniper Research released a study on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, forecasting that global investment in Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) satellites will approach $10 billion (€8.8 billion) by 2031.
The projected expansion from $5.2 billion in 2026 represents a growth rate of nearly 100 percent over the five-year period. The market shift is driven by expanding commercial constellation deployments, lower launch expenditure, and advancements in onboard processing, materials science, and specialised electric propulsion systems.
Operational Parameters and Earth Observation Focus
The study identifies Earth observation (EO) as the primary commercial driver for VLEO satellite capital expenditures throughout the forecast horizon. By operating at orbital altitudes below 450 kilometers, satellites experience significantly less physical distance to the surface, enabling smaller optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) payloads to achieve resolution comparable to much larger, higher-altitude low Earth orbit (LEO) platforms.
This altitude advantage reduces hardware production and launch costs, enhancing mission economics for commercial imagery and remote sensing applications. The report follows earlier market tracking by Juniper Research that identified VLEO commercial growth indicators across telecommunications, navigation, and environmental monitoring sectors.
Technical Challenges and Sector Outlook
Despite favorable payload economics, the research highlights that long-term commercial viability depends on mitigating severe atmospheric drag and atomic oxygen erosion characteristic of orbits below 450 kilometers. Sustained operation requires satellite developers to implement aerodynamic structural designs, durable protective coatings, and high-efficiency continuous propulsion systems to prevent rapid orbital decay.
The report notes that market vendors successfully overcoming these drag constraints will secure early commercial advantages, mirroring ongoing defense initiatives such as the European Defence Agency’s GomSpace-led VLEO military satellite program and DARPA’s Orion Space Solutions-led Ouija mission.
