By Chris Forrester
Moderator Randy Segal (Partner, Hogan Lovells) said that besides SpaceX there was currently a very limited launch cadence from rivals to SpaceX. Panellists at the Silicon Valley Space Week’s Satellite Innovation sessions each stressed how their launch organisations were coming on stream and in some cases being very successful with their offerings.
Adam Spice (CFO Rocket Lab) said that while he was not matching SpaceX’s 150 launches per year and SpaceX had in his view a 10-year lead on the market, but Rocket Lab’s Electron vehicle was coming. “Besides, if a launch competitor does not have a reusable vehicle then they might as well not be in the market. The barriers to entry are high. We are looking at carrying humans but this aspect alone is not going to pay the bills.”
Mr Spice added that launch is a challenging business full of risks and with typically a “lumpy” revenue stream. Having a diversified business makes those challenges much easier. “We believe that just having a launch business, and nothing else, is a real challenge. Building a satellite is nothing like as difficult as building a rocket. By the time you’ve built your 20th rocket then you have moved away from the prototype.”
Devon Papandrew, VP/Business Development, Stoke Space, said that the market wanted extra capacity and many wanted an alternate to SpaceX. “But even if all of us on this panel are successful I don’t think it will change the cadence much, and SpaceX will still dominate. But reusability is a different beast in terms of design. Vertical integration is probably essential going forward.”
Dr Giulio Ranzo, CEO at Avio, explained that ‘by law’ his company is not permitted to launch US-based satellites. “It is evident that there’ are now single streams that brings together launch, satellite building and other related activity into one competitive solution for customers. But regulators don’t like monopolies for launch.”
Pablo Gallego Sanmiguel, SVP/Sales & Customers, PLD Space said PLD was already competing with SpaceX and was itself targeting carrying humans on its rockets. “Two weeks ago, we announced a plan to include human space flight. There is a market for human activity.”
Israel Figueroa, Director of National Security Programs, Firefly Aerospace, said that Space Planes, a single stage to orbit, is at least 5 years away. “Whoever can solve the problems could well have a business and it could be financially a game changer. But once Starship comes on stream it will again change the market. Not everyone will want to be on a rideshare for their satellites.”
