The past months have seen a tennis match of submissions volley back and forth between SpaceX and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) over granting SpaceX and its Starlink satellites access spectrum and link with the world’s smartphones — SpaceX urgently wants access and the FCC has – to date – firmly declined.
A report from Scotiabank posed the question, “Could Musk’s political victory support SpaceX’s request for a [FCC] waiver?” The bank says that, over the past five months, Elon Musk posted more than 80 pro-Trump messages on X. Additionally, Musk participated in at least 11 Trump rallies. President-elect Trump has since cited Musk as a “great man” and is reportedly planning to give Musk control of a “government efficiency commission” in his words.
Musk’s urgency is based on the moves by rival AST SpaceMobile, which has FCC-approved access rights for direct satellite contact to smartphones. AST has five satellites on-orbit and will launch another 17 in stages over the next few months. AST is making around five satellites each month and wants to see 45 to 60 of its large BlueBirds in orbit during 2025. This will allow the company to start an initial service, but a full global service needs about 110 satellites and a complete constellation will see 168 craft in place.
This timeline is crucial. Elon Musk will have its ‘global’ Starlink Direct-to-Cellular (D2C) sat-phone system in place by the end of this year. On January 2, 2024, the company launched to orbit its first six Starlink satellites with D2C capabilities. Launch and early tests of the technology were all completed without issue. On January 8th, less than six days after launch, it sent and received its first text messages to and from unmodified phones on the ground to the new satellites in space using T-Mobile network spectrum.
Since then, Starlink has tested the system extensively in the U.S. (with FCC approval), New Zealand and elsewhere. SpaceX, in an FCC filing on November 4th said – in summary – please hurry up with your approval/waiver or else Japan will beat the U.S. with its D2C service (with Japanese telco KDDI using Starlink capacity).
SpaceX said, “The Direct to Cell network will expand Starlink’s vision by providing ubiquitous connectivity and seamless access to text, voice, and data for LTE phones and devices across the globe. Text service begins this year, followed by voice, data, and Internet of Things (IoT) services in 2025.”
In other words, AST might only have a few months to get its initial service operational. The FCC chairwoman, Jessica Rosenworcel’s position, expires in June 2025 when it is highly likely that a Republican will replace her. And with that appointment it is also likely that Musk might be granted permission for his long-wanted ‘waiver’ of the limitations on Starlink’s usage of spectrum.
The Economist weekly news magazine, in a report on Musk’s potential influence on the White House, said, “You have to hand it to Elon Musk. The man who plumbed the depths of his PayPal fortune to launch SpaceX, a private rocket company, and put up with ‘production hell’ to make Tesla’s first mass-market electric vehicles (EVs), has just pulled off another coup. President-elect Donald Trump’s most prominent financial backer and loudest advocate has come as close to the levers of presidential power as any serving CEO in American history.”
The report continued, “Many Republicans hope Mr Trump will throw his weight behind Starlink-like satellite systems and scrap President Biden’s $42.5 billion project to roll out broadband to rural areas, which has been an expensive flop.”
AST, in a filing with the FCC on October 24th, said that Starlink cannot offer a viable DtC service without the FCC waiver. Meanwhile, almost every terrestrial cellular rival (except T-Mobile) in the U.S. and Europe is objecting to Musk’s requests for a waiver.
Scotiabank describes this position as a ‘David vs Goliath’ battle but believes that AST’s “superior technology will prevail.”
Nevertheless, SpaceX launched a batch of 13 D2C craft on November 8th and now says it is just four launches away from global readiness. Scotiabank, however, summarizes the dilemma for Starlink, saying, “Poor design is [still] poor design.”
